Follow the Money
The circular economy of AI: chipmakers invest in labs that buy chips; clouds fund labs that buy cloud; the same dollars get announced twice. 79 live deals, $2,008B at face value plus 16 with no disclosed figure — each traced to a source. Data as of 2026-08-30 · JSON.
Bubble Thermometer: 15/100 — cool
15/100 (cool): "bubble" said 0× this week (flat from 0); AI basket market spread unknown; $0B of deals announced this month.
Components: talk 0 · markets 50 · money 0 (weights 40/30/30). Each input links to where it comes from: "bubble" in this week's feed (0, prior week 0) · the AI basket against QQQ over a month · $0B announced in 2026-09. An attention index from this site's own data; it measures temperature, not the future.
Daily readings since 2026-09-16. JSON
The 22 busiest counterparties and the 61 live deals between them that match the filter. Click a company for its page, click a curve to jump to that deal and its source. Curve width scales with the amount (log); colour is the deal type; dashed means reported but not confirmed by the parties; thin means no figure was disclosed.
Money that goes around
Pairs where cash flows both ways — an investment one way, a purchase commitment back. Computed from the deal list, not curated. Open a pair for every deal and its source.
OpenAI ⇄ Microsoft $288B one way · $13B back
- $250B compute / cloud contract, 2025-10-28, announced — Microsoft blog
- $38B revenue share, 2026-04-27, closed / funded — Microsoft blog (Apr 27 2026)
- $13B equity investment, 2023-01-23, closed / funded — Microsoft blog (Oct 28 2025)
OpenAI ⇄ Amazon $138B one way · $50B back
- $38B compute / cloud contract, 2025-11-03, announced — Amazon newsroom
- $100B compute / cloud contract, 2026-02-27, announced — Amazon newsroom
- $50B equity investment, 2026-02-27, closed / funded — Amazon newsroom
OpenAI ⇄ NVIDIA $0B one way · $135B back
- undisclosed chip supply deal, 2025-09-22, announced — NVIDIA newsroom
- $30B equity investment, 2026-02-27, closed / funded — CNBC
- $105B debt, guarantee or project finance, 2026-08-17, announced — CNBC (citing Nvidia 8-K)
Anthropic ⇄ Amazon $100B one way · $33B back
- $100B compute / cloud contract, 2026-04-20, announced — Amazon newsroom
- $8B equity investment, 2023-09-25, closed / funded — CNBC
- $25B equity investment, 2026-04-20, partly funded — Amazon newsroom
Anthropic ⇄ Alphabet (Google) $0B one way · $43B back
Anthropic → Google: undisclosed
- undisclosed compute / cloud contract, 2025-10-23, announced — Google Cloud press release
- undisclosed compute / cloud contract, 2026-04-06, announced — Anthropic
- $3B equity investment, 2023-10-27, closed / funded — CNBC
- $40B equity investment, 2026-04-24, partly funded — TechCrunch
Anthropic ⇄ Microsoft $30B one way · $5B back
- $30B compute / cloud contract, 2025-11-18, announced — Anthropic
- $5B equity investment, 2025-11-18, closed / funded — Anthropic
Anthropic ⇄ NVIDIA $0B one way · $10B back
Anthropic → Nvidia: undisclosed
- undisclosed chip supply deal, 2025-11-18, announced — Anthropic
- $10B equity investment, 2025-11-18, partly funded — Anthropic
OpenAI ⇄ AMD $0B one way · $0B back
- undisclosed chip supply deal, 2025-10-06, announced — AMD press release
- undisclosed equity investment, 2025-10-06, announced — AMD press release
Meta Platforms ⇄ AMD $0B one way · $0B back
- undisclosed chip supply deal, 2026-02-24, announced — AMD press release
- undisclosed equity investment, 2026-02-24, announced — AMD press release
Circularity score
Of the disclosed funding each lab took from named investors listed here, how much came from companies the lab also pays for compute or chips. Round totals from funds are not broken out, so this is the strategic-money share, not a share of everything ever raised. Every number links to the deals behind it.
| Lab | Named funding | From its own vendors | Circularity | Which vendors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | $153B | $93B | 61% | Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon |
| Anthropic | $91B | $91B | 100% | Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia |
| xAI | $6B | $0B | 0% | — |
| Mistral AI | $1.5B | $0B | 0% | — |
| Scale AI | $14.3B | $0B | 0% | — |
Announced per month
Face value as announced; the grey stubs are deals later cancelled or never closed, which stay out of the total. Click a month to list its deals.
Biggest counterparties
Announced and reported amounts at face value; "up to" commitments count in full — that is how the headlines count them, and why every row carries its notes. Every company name is a page.
Deals that shrank or died
- Microsoft → OpenAI, undisclosed revenue share (2026-04-27) — Microsoft's revenue share to OpenAI (on Azure OpenAI / product revenue) ended: 'Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI.' Amount never disclosed. Microsoft blog (Apr 27 2026) · row
- NVIDIA → OpenAI, $100B equity investment (2025-09-22) — Letter of intent only: 'up to $100B progressively as each gigawatt is deployed' (10 GW). Never became a definitive agreement; Huang, 2026-03-04: 'probably not in the cards'. Superseded by a $30B equity cheque and the $105B lease guarantee. NVIDIA newsroom · row
- CoreWeave → Core Scientific, $9B acquisition (2025-07-07) — All-stock offer announced July 2025; Core Scientific shareholders voted it down and the merger agreement was terminated 2025-10-30. CNBC · row
Private valuations (latest verified)
- OpenAI: $852B (2026-03-31) — source
$122B round closed 2026-03-31 at $852B post-money (Amazon $50B, SoftBank $30B, Nvidia $30B). Confidential draft S-1 submitted to the SEC on 2026-06-08. - Anthropic: $965B (2026-05-28) — source
Series G: $30B at $380B post-money (2026-02-12). Series H: $65B at $965B post-money (2026-05-28; run-rate revenue above $47B). Confidential draft S-1 submitted on 2026-06-01. - xAI: $250B (2026-02-02) — source
Series E of $20B closed 2026-01-06 (Nvidia and Cisco among the investors). Folded into SpaceX in an all-stock merger valuing xAI at about $250B (February 2026); SpaceX listed on 2026-06-12 as SPCX. - Mistral AI: $13.8B (2025-09-09) — source
- Scale AI: $29B (2025-06-12) — source
- Crusoe: $10B (2025-10-01) — source
- Groq: $6.9B (2025-09-17) — source
Every deal, with its source
Amounts link to the source they come from; companies link to their pages; types, months and statuses filter the page; the # is the deal's anchor.
| Deal | Amount ▾ | Type | Announced | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI → Oracle | $300B Reported by the WSJ (five years from 2027, about 4.5 GW); neither company has confirmed the figure. S&P says OpenAI is about half of Oracle's $638B backlog. A planned ~600 MW expansion of the Abilene site was dropped in March 2026. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-09-10 reported, not confirmed by the parties | DCD, citing WSJ · second source single-source figure #bf5a91 |
| SpaceX → xAI | $250B All-stock merger: SpaceX about $1T + xAI about $250B = about $1.25T combined. SpaceX then listed on 2026-06-12 at $135 a share, raising about $75B. | Acquisition | 2026-02-02 closed / funded | CNBC · second source #8f7c99 |
| OpenAI → Microsoft | $250B 'Incremental $250B of Azure services' contracted; Microsoft lost right of first refusal on OpenAI compute. April 2026 amendment kept Azure as primary cloud / first-ship platform; Feb 2026 joint statement: Azure remains exclusive for stateless OpenAI API calls. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-10-28 announced | Microsoft blog · second source #f86156 |
| Nvidia → OpenAI | $105B Up to. A lease GUARANTEE, not a loan: Nvidia stands behind up to $105B of OpenAI's lease obligations for an SB Energy data-center campus in Pike County, Ohio (first capacity due 2028), and pays only if OpenAI does not. Reported at about $250B in July and 'under $120B' on Aug 14 before Nvidia's filing set the cap. | Debt, guarantee or project finance | 2026-08-17 announced | CNBC (citing Nvidia 8-K) · second source #ac57b2 |
| Anthropic → Amazon | $100B 'More than $100 billion over the next ten years on AWS'; up to 5 GW of Trainium/Graviton capacity. | Compute / cloud contract | 2026-04-20 announced | Amazon newsroom #db4e93 |
| OpenAI → Amazon | $100B Expansion of the $38B agreement 'by $100 billion over 8 years', including ~2 GW of Trainium capacity. | Compute / cloud contract | 2026-02-27 announced | Amazon newsroom #b7e6a2 |
| Nvidia → OpenAI | $100B Letter of intent only: 'up to $100B progressively as each gigawatt is deployed' (10 GW). Never became a definitive agreement; Huang, 2026-03-04: 'probably not in the cards'. Superseded by a $30B equity cheque and the $105B lease guarantee. | Equity investment | 2025-09-22 cancelled / never closed | NVIDIA newsroom · second source #3edc34 |
| Amazon → OpenAI | $50B $15B upfront + $35B once conditions were met (reported: an IPO or an AGI milestone). Amazon's Q2 2026 report: $15B in Q1, $13.7B in Q2, the remaining $21.3B after June 30 - fully funded by July 2026. | Equity investment | 2026-02-27 closed / funded | Amazon newsroom · second source single-source figure #75ec78 |
| Bond & loan markets → Oracle | $50B Plan: $45-50B of gross proceeds in calendar 2026 - about half a one-time investment-grade bond issue, half equity and equity-linked (mandatory convertible preferred plus an at-the-market programme of up to $20B). Fiscal 2026 free cash flow was -$23.7B; S&P cut Oracle to BBB- in July 2026. | Debt, guarantee or project finance | 2026-02-01 partly funded | Oracle press release · second source #685e01 |
| OpenAI → US government | $42.6B PROPOSAL ONLY (Financial Times, 2026-07-02): a 5% stake - about $42.6B at $852B - in a public-wealth vehicle. Early stage, would need Congress; not executed. | Government stake / grant | 2026-07-02 reported, not confirmed by the parties | CNBC, citing Financial Times · second source single-source figure #082e42 |
| Google → Anthropic | $40B Up to: $10B in cash now at a $350B valuation + $30B contingent on performance milestones; paired with about 5 GW of TPU capacity coming online from 2027. | Equity investment | 2026-04-24 partly funded | TechCrunch · second source #7e0d07 |
| Oracle → Nvidia | $40B Reported (FT): ~400,000 GB200 chips for the 1.2 GW Abilene Stargate site leased to OpenAI for 15 years. | Chip supply deal | 2025-05-23 reported, not confirmed by the parties | DCD, citing Financial Times single-source figure #e3d930 |
| OpenAI → Microsoft | $38B Cap, reported. Companies confirmed (2026-04-27) revenue share continues through 2030 'at the same percentage but subject to a total cap', independent of AGI; the ~20% rate and $38B cap are per The Information (May 2026), not confirmed by either company. | Revenue share | 2026-04-27 closed / funded | Microsoft blog (Apr 27 2026) · second source single-source figure #047352 |
| OpenAI → Amazon | $38B Seven-year AWS agreement; hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs; all capacity targeted before end-2026. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-11-03 announced | Amazon newsroom #075d0d |
| Nvidia → OpenAI | $30B Part of the $122B round closed 2026-03-31 at $852B post-money (Amazon $50B, SoftBank $30B, Nvidia $30B). Huang: this 'might be the last' Nvidia investment in OpenAI. | Equity investment | 2026-02-27 closed / funded | CNBC · second source #bd0a22 |
| SoftBank → OpenAI | $30B Co-led the 2026 round ($110B announced 2026-02-27; closed 2026-03-31 at $122B and $852B post-money). | Equity investment | 2026-02-27 closed / funded | CNBC · second source #7cff70 |
| Anthropic → Microsoft | $30B 'Committed to purchase $30 billion of Azure compute capacity and to contract additional compute capacity up to one gigawatt.' | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-11-18 announced | Anthropic · second source #8f1885 |
| SoftBank → OpenAI | $30B March 2025 commitment (led the $40B round at $300B post-money): $7.5B at first closing (Apr 2025) + $22.5B at second closing (2025-12-26) via Vision Fund 2; co-investors added $11B (total $41B). SoftBank's stake ~11% after this. Funded partly by selling its entire Nvidia stake ($5.83B) and T-Mobile shares. | Equity investment | 2025-03-31 closed / funded | SoftBank Group press release · second source #8f5feb |
| Meta → Nebius | $27B Up to ~$27B over five years: $12B of dedicated Vera Rubin capacity from early 2027 + up to $15B of additional capacity on upcoming clusters. | Compute / cloud contract | 2026-03-16 announced | Nebius newsroom · second source #76d530 |
| Blue Owl → Meta | $27B Off-balance-sheet JV project financing for the >2 GW Hyperion campus (Louisiana): Blue Owl funds own 80%, Meta 20%; ~$27B total development cost funded pro rata; Blue Owl contributed ~$7B cash and Meta took a ~$3B one-time distribution. | Debt, guarantee or project finance | 2025-10-21 closed / funded | Meta IR · second source #2d24ee |
| Amazon → Anthropic | $25B Up to: $5B invested at $380B valuation (2026-04-20) + up to $20B 'tied to certain commercial milestones'. Anthropic's Series H (May 2026) counts the $5B among '$15B of previously committed investments from hyperscalers'. | Equity investment | 2026-04-20 partly funded | Amazon newsroom · second source #c049c5 |
| Microsoft → Nscale | $23B Approximate aggregate of several 2025 agreements (Norway ~$6.2B Sept 2025, Texas ~$14B Oct 2025, UK/Portugal) per DCD's tally; individual contracts partly undisclosed. DCD put Microsoft's total neocloud commitments above $60B by Nov 2025. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-10-15 announced | DCD single-source figure #df8f94 |
| OpenAI → CoreWeave | $22.4B Up to; cumulative: $11.9B (Mar 2025, OpenAI also received ~$350M of CoreWeave stock) + $4B (May 2025) + $6.5B (Sept 2025). | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-03-10 announced | CoreWeave IR · second source #86b4a0 |
| Meta → CoreWeave | $21B Expanded agreement through December 2032 (about $21B), inference-focused, with early deployments of Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. | Compute / cloud contract | 2026-04-09 announced | CoreWeave IR · second source #8ecef3 |
| Anthropic → Broadcom | $21B TPU (Ironwood) rack orders: $10B (disclosed Q3 FY25) + $11B (Q4 FY25), delivery into late 2026; Broadcom identified Anthropic as the customer on its 2025-12-11 earnings call. | Chip supply deal | 2025-12-11 announced | CNBC (Broadcom Q4 FY25 call) #ae00a6 |
| Nvidia → Groq | $20B ~$20B cash for Groq assets + non-exclusive licence to its inference technology + hiring of CEO and senior team; Groq continues as an independent company. ~3x Groq's Sept 2025 valuation ($6.9B). Nvidia's largest deal ever. | Acquisition | 2025-12-24 closed / funded | CNBC #53ec56 |
| Meta → Oracle | $20B Reported (~$20B, multiyear) by Bloomberg 2025-09-19; Oracle confirmed a Meta cloud deal on 2025-10-16 without disclosing value. Oracle's Feb 2026 financing release lists Meta among contracted customers. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-09-19 reported, not confirmed by the parties | Bloomberg · second source single-source figure #b414eb |
| SoftBank → Stargate JV | $19B Reported (The Information): SoftBank and OpenAI ~$19B each for ~40% each; Oracle and MGX ~$7B each. Headline '$500B' is planned spend, mostly project debt against compute contracts, not committed equity. | Equity investment | 2025-01-21 reported, not confirmed by the parties | DCD, citing The Information · second source single-source figure #515c3d |
| OpenAI → Stargate JV | $19B Reported (The Information); see softbank->stargate. | Equity investment | 2025-01-21 reported, not confirmed by the parties | DCD, citing The Information single-source figure #0a2c1c |
| Microsoft → Nebius | $17.4B Five-year dedicated GPU capacity (Vineland, NJ); up to $19.4B with options. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-09-08 announced | Nebius newsroom · second source #7ea4d5 |
| Blue Owl → Crusoe | $15B JV project financing (equity + construction debt) with Primary Digital Infrastructure for the 1.2 GW Abilene campus; includes a JPMorgan-led $7.1B construction loan (Bloomberg, 2025-05-22). | Debt, guarantee or project finance | 2025-05-21 closed / funded | Crusoe newsroom · second source #f52cfb |
| Meta → Scale AI | $14.3B 49% non-voting stake at a $29B valuation; CEO Alexandr Wang moved to Meta. Several Scale customers (Google, OpenAI, xAI) subsequently cut work with Scale (reported). | Equity investment | 2025-06-12 closed / funded | CNBC #df8398 |
| Meta → CoreWeave | $14.2B Six-year GB300 capacity contract with option to extend to 2032-12-14. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-09-30 announced | CNBC #ffae15 |
| Microsoft → OpenAI | $13B $13B committed ($1B in 2019 + $10B in January 2023); Microsoft's 10-Q for the quarter to 2025-09-30 put the funded amount at $11.6B. The October 2025 recapitalization left Microsoft with about 27% of OpenAI Group PBC (as-converted, diluted). | Equity investment | 2023-01-23 closed / funded | Microsoft blog (Oct 28 2025) · second source #df0dba |
| Bond & loan markets → xAI | $12.5B Reported debt component of the $20B Series E, structured through a GPU-secured SPV (lenders' security is the Nvidia hardware). | Debt, guarantee or project finance | 2026-01-06 reported, not confirmed by the parties | Bloomberg single-source figure #4fb8d2 |
| Bond & loan markets → CoreWeave | $10B 'Raised more than $10 billion of unsecured debt and convertible bonds' in 2026 (incl. inaugural Eurobond) plus a $3.1B term loan and a $1B strategic investment from Jane Street; Q2 2026 interest expense $640M. | Debt, guarantee or project finance | 2026-08-11 closed / funded | CoreWeave IR (Q2 2026 results) #5f2070 |
| OpenAI → Cerebras | $10B 'Worth over $10B' per CNBC; the companies' own announcement gives 750 MW of wafer-scale inference capacity through 2028 and no dollar figure. Cerebras listed on 2026-05-14. | Compute / cloud contract | 2026-01-14 announced | CNBC · second source single-source figure #b8d762 |
| Nvidia → Anthropic | $10B Up to $10B committed 2025-11-18; the Series G release (February 2026) says the round 'includes a portion' of it. Funded amount not disclosed. | Equity investment | 2025-11-18 partly funded | Anthropic · second source single-source figure #093c85 |
| Meta → Google | $10B 'Over $10B' six-year Google Cloud deal, reported by The Information; not confirmed by either company. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-08-21 reported, not confirmed by the parties | CNBC, citing The Information single-source figure #09ddb2 |
| Microsoft → CoreWeave | $10B 'More than $10B' across five contracts through 2030 per CoreWeave's S-1, which also disclosed Microsoft was 62% of 2024 revenue (35% in 2023). Exact contract values not itemised. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-03-03 closed / funded | CoreWeave S-1 · second source single-source figure #bd8573 |
| Microsoft → IREN | $9.7B Five-year GB300 cloud contract with a 20% prepayment (IREN 8-K). | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-11-03 announced | IREN 8-K #c294c4 |
| CoreWeave → Core Scientific | $9B All-stock offer announced July 2025; Core Scientific shareholders voted it down and the merger agreement was terminated 2025-10-30. | Acquisition | 2025-07-07 cancelled / never closed | CNBC · second source #9a1302 |
| US government → Intel | $8.9B 433.3M shares at $20.47 = 9.9% stake, funded from $5.7B of undisbursed CHIPS grants + $3.2B Secure Enclave; passive (no board seat), votes with the board; plus a 5-year warrant for a further 5% at $20 exercisable only if Intel's foundry ownership falls below 51%. | Government stake / grant | 2025-08-22 closed / funded | Intel newsroom #eee918 |
| Amazon → Anthropic | $8B $4B (announced 2023-09-25) + $4B (2024-11-22), largely via convertible notes; Amazon a minority, non-voting holder. Amazon's Q2 2026 results booked $53.4B of non-operating gains mainly from Anthropic marks. | Equity investment | 2023-09-25 closed / funded | CNBC #35c7c4 |
| Oracle → Stargate JV | $7B Reported (The Information). | Equity investment | 2025-01-21 reported, not confirmed by the parties | DCD, citing The Information single-source figure #579489 |
| MGX → Stargate JV | $7B Reported (The Information). | Equity investment | 2025-01-21 reported, not confirmed by the parties | DCD, citing The Information single-source figure #cd41b7 |
| US government → TSMC | $6.6B Taxonomy stretch: CHIPS Act GRANT (up to $6.6B direct funding, milestone-based) plus up to $5B of proposed loans for TSMC Arizona; no equity taken. | Government stake / grant | 2024-11-15 closed / funded | US Commerce Department #b50529 |
| OpenAI → io (Jony Ive) | $6.5B All-stock; announced 2025-05-21 (reported $6.4-6.5B), closed 2025-07-09. OpenAI's largest acquisition. | Acquisition | 2025-05-21 closed / funded | Bloomberg · second source #4443c5 |
| SoftBank → Ampere | $6.5B All-cash; announced 2025-03-19/20, FTC cleared Nov 2025, closed 2025-11-25. | Acquisition | 2025-03-20 closed / funded | SoftBank Group press release · second source #81f4af |
| Nvidia → CoreWeave | $6.3B Initial value; order form under the 2023 MSA: Nvidia is 'obligated to purchase the residual unsold capacity' through 2032-04-13, i.e. a demand backstop for CoreWeave's Nvidia-GPU fleet. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-09-09 closed / funded | CoreWeave 8-K · second source #df704d |
| Microsoft → Anthropic | $5B Up to $5B committed 2025-11-18; a portion closed inside the February 2026 Series G. Microsoft booked a $3.2B gain on the stake in its quarter to June 2026. | Equity investment | 2025-11-18 closed / funded | Anthropic · second source #e3c675 |
| Nvidia → Intel | $5B Common stock at $23.28/share (~4% of Intel); FTC cleared 2025-12-18, closed 2025-12-26; paired with joint NVLink-based x86/RTX product development. | Equity investment | 2025-09-18 closed / funded | NVIDIA newsroom · second source #9dc70e |
| Bond & loan markets → xAI | $5B Morgan Stanley-led loans and secured bonds (~12% yields, unrated) alongside a $5B strategic equity raise; orders ~1.5x, described as tepid demand. | Debt, guarantee or project finance | 2025-07-01 closed / funded | CNBC #a2b10c |
| SoftBank → OpenAI | $3B PER YEAR. Taxonomy stretch: this is enterprise product/licensing spend, not compute. SoftBank Group 'will spend $3 billion US annually to deploy OpenAI's solutions across its group companies' (Cristal intelligence; SB OpenAI Japan JV). | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-02-03 announced | SoftBank Group press release #8deda2 |
| Google → Anthropic | $3B Approx.: ~$300M early 2023 (~10%), up to $2B committed Oct 2023 ($500M upfront + $1.5B), >$1B more Jan 2025. NYT reported (Sept 2025) a ~14% stake with no voting rights; Google capped at 15%. | Equity investment | 2023-10-27 closed / funded | CNBC · second source #54d280 |
| Nvidia → Nebius | $2B Strategic investment toward more than 5 GW of Nebius capacity by 2030. On 2026-07-21 Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake (shares plus a warrant from the deal). | Equity investment | 2026-03-11 closed / funded | NVIDIA newsroom · second source #4e4978 |
| Tesla → xAI | $2B About $2B of Series E preferred, disclosed in Tesla's Q4 2025 shareholder letter (2026-01-28) as 'expected to close in the first quarter'. xAI was folded into SpaceX weeks later. | Equity investment | 2026-01-28 announced | TechCrunch (Tesla shareholder letter) #1fa4f0 |
| Nvidia → CoreWeave | $2B Class A shares at $87.20; tied to a plan to add >5 GW of capacity by 2030 and early access to new Nvidia products. | Equity investment | 2026-01-26 closed / funded | CoreWeave IR · second source #0f8258 |
| Nvidia → xAI | $2B Strategic investor in the $20B Series E closed 2026-01-06 (Nvidia and Cisco named by xAI); 'as much as $2B' per CNBC; valuation about $230B, reported. | Equity investment | 2026-01-06 closed / funded | CNBC · second source single-source figure #d59e72 |
| SoftBank → Intel | $2B Common stock at $23/share (~2% of Intel). | Equity investment | 2025-08-18 closed / funded | SoftBank Group press release · second source #6310f2 |
| SpaceX → xAI | $2B Reported by WSJ as part of a $5B equity round (July 2025); superseded by the Feb 2026 merger. | Equity investment | 2025-07-13 reported, not confirmed by the parties | TechCrunch, citing WSJ single-source figure #55a5da |
| ASML → Mistral | $1.5B EUR 1.3B (~$1.5B) lead of the EUR 1.7B Series C at EUR 11.7B post-money; ~11% fully diluted stake. | Equity investment | 2025-09-09 closed / funded | Mistral AI · second source #6a5d38 |
| Nvidia → Lambda | $1.5B Reported (The Information): Nvidia leases back ~18,000 of its own GPUs from Lambda over four years ($1.3B + $0.2B contracts), making Nvidia Lambda's largest customer; Nvidia is also a Lambda investor. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-09-08 reported, not confirmed by the parties | DCD, citing The Information single-source figure #e029f9 |
| Apple → Google | $1B PER YEAR, reported (~$1B/yr, Bloomberg) for a custom 1.2T-parameter Gemini model powering the rebuilt Siri; the companies confirmed the multi-year partnership on 2026-01-12 without financial terms. Taxonomy stretch: model licensing, not compute. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-11-05 reported, not confirmed by the parties | Bloomberg · second source single-source figure #4f9395 |
| Nvidia → CoreWeave | $0.25B $250M anchor order in the IPO at $40/share (IPO raised $1.5B, priced below range). Nvidia was already an early investor (2023) and held ~$900M of CoreWeave stock as of 2025-03-31 (13F). | Equity investment | 2025-03-28 closed / funded | CNBC · second source #4f6651 |
| Microsoft → OpenAI | undisclosed Microsoft's revenue share to OpenAI (on Azure OpenAI / product revenue) ended: 'Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI.' Amount never disclosed. | Revenue share | 2026-04-27 cancelled / never closed | Microsoft blog (Apr 27 2026) #b22ddc |
| Anthropic → Google | undisclosed 'Multiple gigawatts' of next-generation TPU capacity from 2027, with Broadcom; Anthropic's Series H release (May 2026) cites 'five gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity'. No dollar figure. | Compute / cloud contract | 2026-04-06 announced | Anthropic · second source #9fc98b |
| Meta → AMD | undisclosed Up to 6 GW of AMD GPUs; first GW of custom MI450 + EPYC shipping 2H 2026. Value undisclosed. | Chip supply deal | 2026-02-24 announced | AMD press release · second source #babe9c |
| AMD → Meta | undisclosed Performance-based warrant for up to 160M AMD shares (the same size as OpenAI's), vesting on gigawatt-purchase milestones plus AMD share-price thresholds. | Equity investment | 2026-02-24 announced | AMD press release · second source #6e2668 |
| Meta → Nvidia | undisclosed Multiyear, multigenerational agreement to deploy 'millions' of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, Grace CPUs and Spectrum-X networking; financial value not disclosed. | Chip supply deal | 2026-02-17 announced | NVIDIA newsroom · second source #4f3e66 |
| Anthropic → Nvidia | undisclosed 'Initially up to one gigawatt of compute capacity with NVIDIA Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems.' No dollar figure. | Chip supply deal | 2025-11-18 announced | Anthropic #c04541 |
| Microsoft → Lambda | undisclosed 'Multibillion-dollar' multi-year deal for tens of thousands of GB300 GPUs; value undisclosed. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-11-03 announced | TechCrunch single-source figure #6cd02b |
| Anthropic → Google | undisclosed 'Tens of billions of dollars' (companies' phrasing, no figure): access to up to 1 million TPUs, >1 GW online in 2026. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-10-23 announced | Google Cloud press release · second source #db5771 |
| OpenAI → Broadcom | undisclosed 10 GW of OpenAI-designed accelerators and Broadcom Ethernet racks; deployment 2H 2026 through end-2029. No dollar figure disclosed. | Chip supply deal | 2025-10-13 announced | Broadcom IR #ad3e8c |
| OpenAI → AMD | undisclosed 6 GW of AMD Instinct GPUs across generations; first 1 GW of MI450 in 2H 2026. Dollar value undisclosed (analysts: tens of billions per GW). | Chip supply deal | 2025-10-06 announced | AMD press release · second source #6d1cba |
| AMD → OpenAI | undisclosed Warrant for up to 160M AMD shares (~10% of AMD) at $0.01, vesting in tranches on GPU purchase milestones AND AMD share-price targets; exercisable through 2030-10-05. Value depends on vesting; no cash changes hands upfront. | Equity investment | 2025-10-06 announced | AMD press release · second source #ee6ff4 |
| Nvidia → Crusoe | undisclosed Nvidia participated in Crusoe's $600M Series D (Dec 2024) and $1.375B Series E (Oct 2025, >$10B valuation); Nvidia's cheque size undisclosed. Date approximate (October 2025). | Equity investment | 2025-10-01 closed / funded | Crusoe newsroom #b492ef |
| OpenAI → Nvidia | undisclosed At least 10 GW of Nvidia systems; first GW on Vera Rubin targeted 2H 2026. Dollar value undisclosed; LOI-level commitment, equity leg dropped. | Chip supply deal | 2025-09-22 announced | NVIDIA newsroom single-source figure #e196b0 |
| Nvidia → Mistral | undisclosed Existing investor that 'committed more cash' in the Series C; amount undisclosed. Mistral also buys Nvidia systems (Mistral Compute, 2025). | Equity investment | 2025-09-09 closed / funded | Mistral AI #f8c05c |
| Nvidia → US government | undisclosed 15% of H20 China sales as a condition of export licences (August 2025); H200 later allowed with a 25% cut (December 2025). Realised payments not disclosed. | Revenue share | 2025-08-11 announced | CBS News (Reuters/FT-reported, confirmed by Trump) · second source single-source figure #4cbbb3 |
| AMD → US government | undisclosed 15% of MI308 China sales as an export-licence condition; realised amounts not disclosed. | Revenue share | 2025-08-11 announced | CBS News single-source figure #d3900f |
| Oracle → Crusoe | undisclosed Oracle is the tenant of Crusoe's 1.2 GW Abilene campus, sub-leased to OpenAI; lease value undisclosed. A planned ~600 MW expansion was dropped in March 2026 after financing talks stalled; Meta was reported in talks for the space. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-05-21 partly funded | Crusoe newsroom · second source single-source figure #124a71 |
Deal Watch — reported in the last 45 days (automatic, unverified)
Headlines from the feed go through a model that extracts who-pays-whom; a report appears here only when two different publishers agree on the parties and the amounts agree within 25%. Every publisher name links to the headline. Nothing in this box is in the verified graph above until a data review confirms it against a primary source.
No two-source reports in the window — the extractor needs an AI provider key.
The bubble reads
- AI's $600B Question — Sequoia Capital (David Cahn), 2024-06-20. Annualised AI infrastructure spend implies about $600B of yearly AI revenue is needed to earn a return; most of it is missing.
- The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025 — MIT NANDA, 2025-07. Despite $30-40B of enterprise GenAI spend, about 95% of pilots show no measurable P&L impact.
- Bridging a $1.5tr Data Center Financing Gap — Morgan Stanley Research, 2025-08. About $2.9T of global data-center capex through 2028, only about half fundable from hyperscaler cash flow; the rest must come from bonds, private credit and securitisation.
- $2 trillion in new revenue needed to fund AI's scaling trend — Bain & Company, 6th Global Technology Report, 2025-09-23. Meeting projected 2030 compute demand needs about $2T of annual AI revenue; the industry is about $800B short.
- IMF and Bank of England join growing chorus warning of an AI bubble — IMF Global Financial Stability Report / Bank of England FPC, via CNBC, 2025-10-09. Both flagged AI-concentrated equity valuations comparable to the 2000 dot-com peak and the risk of an abrupt correction.
- World Outlook: '1999 meets 1990' — Deutsche Bank Research (Jim Reid), via Investing.com, 2026-06-06. Frames 2026 as 1999-style tech enthusiasm colliding with a 1990-style oil shock, with an AI investment boom propping up US growth.
Method: a deal is listed only when it traces to a press release, an SEC filing, or top-tier reporting, with its date and status. Amounts are as announced or credibly reported; status says whether a deal closed, is staged, or was only reported. Not investment advice.