Follow the Money
The circular economy of AI: chipmakers invest in labs that buy chips; clouds fund labs that buy cloud; the same dollars get announced twice. 79 live deals, $2,008B at face value plus 16 with no disclosed figure — each traced to a source. Data as of 2026-08-30 · JSON.
Showing 19 of 82 deals for NVIDIA. Clear.
Bubble Thermometer: 15/100 — cool
15/100 (cool): "bubble" said 0× this week (flat from 0); AI basket market spread unknown; $0B of deals announced this month.
Components: talk 0 · markets 50 · money 0 (weights 40/30/30). Each input links to where it comes from: "bubble" in this week's feed (0, prior week 0) · the AI basket against QQQ over a month · $0B announced in 2026-09. An attention index from this site's own data; it measures temperature, not the future.
Daily readings since 2026-09-16. JSON
NVIDIA in focus: its curves keep their colour, the rest fade. The 22 busiest counterparties and the 16 live deals between them that match the filter. Click a company for its page, click a curve to jump to that deal and its source. Curve width scales with the amount (log); colour is the deal type; dashed means reported but not confirmed by the parties; thin means no figure was disclosed.
Money that goes around
Pairs where cash flows both ways — an investment one way, a purchase commitment back. Computed from the deal list, not curated. Open a pair for every deal and its source.
OpenAI ⇄ NVIDIA $0B one way · $135B back
- undisclosed chip supply deal, 2025-09-22, announced — NVIDIA newsroom
- $30B equity investment, 2026-02-27, closed / funded — CNBC
- $105B debt, guarantee or project finance, 2026-08-17, announced — CNBC (citing Nvidia 8-K)
Anthropic ⇄ NVIDIA $0B one way · $10B back
Anthropic → Nvidia: undisclosed
- undisclosed chip supply deal, 2025-11-18, announced — Anthropic
- $10B equity investment, 2025-11-18, partly funded — Anthropic
Announced per month — NVIDIA
Face value as announced; the grey stubs are deals later cancelled or never closed, which stay out of the total. Click a month to list its deals.
Biggest counterparties
Announced and reported amounts at face value; "up to" commitments count in full — that is how the headlines count them, and why every row carries its notes. Every company name is a page.
Deals that shrank or died
- NVIDIA → OpenAI, $100B equity investment (2025-09-22) — Letter of intent only: 'up to $100B progressively as each gigawatt is deployed' (10 GW). Never became a definitive agreement; Huang, 2026-03-04: 'probably not in the cards'. Superseded by a $30B equity cheque and the $105B lease guarantee. NVIDIA newsroom · row
19 deals, with sources
Amounts link to the source they come from; companies link to their pages; types, months and statuses filter the page; the # is the deal's anchor.
| Deal | Amount ▾ | Type | Announced | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia → OpenAI | $105B Up to. A lease GUARANTEE, not a loan: Nvidia stands behind up to $105B of OpenAI's lease obligations for an SB Energy data-center campus in Pike County, Ohio (first capacity due 2028), and pays only if OpenAI does not. Reported at about $250B in July and 'under $120B' on Aug 14 before Nvidia's filing set the cap. | Debt, guarantee or project finance | 2026-08-17 announced | CNBC (citing Nvidia 8-K) · second source #ac57b2 |
| Nvidia → OpenAI | $100B Letter of intent only: 'up to $100B progressively as each gigawatt is deployed' (10 GW). Never became a definitive agreement; Huang, 2026-03-04: 'probably not in the cards'. Superseded by a $30B equity cheque and the $105B lease guarantee. | Equity investment | 2025-09-22 cancelled / never closed | NVIDIA newsroom · second source #3edc34 |
| Oracle → Nvidia | $40B Reported (FT): ~400,000 GB200 chips for the 1.2 GW Abilene Stargate site leased to OpenAI for 15 years. | Chip supply deal | 2025-05-23 reported, not confirmed by the parties | DCD, citing Financial Times single-source figure #e3d930 |
| Nvidia → OpenAI | $30B Part of the $122B round closed 2026-03-31 at $852B post-money (Amazon $50B, SoftBank $30B, Nvidia $30B). Huang: this 'might be the last' Nvidia investment in OpenAI. | Equity investment | 2026-02-27 closed / funded | CNBC · second source #bd0a22 |
| Nvidia → Groq | $20B ~$20B cash for Groq assets + non-exclusive licence to its inference technology + hiring of CEO and senior team; Groq continues as an independent company. ~3x Groq's Sept 2025 valuation ($6.9B). Nvidia's largest deal ever. | Acquisition | 2025-12-24 closed / funded | CNBC #53ec56 |
| Nvidia → Anthropic | $10B Up to $10B committed 2025-11-18; the Series G release (February 2026) says the round 'includes a portion' of it. Funded amount not disclosed. | Equity investment | 2025-11-18 partly funded | Anthropic · second source single-source figure #093c85 |
| Nvidia → CoreWeave | $6.3B Initial value; order form under the 2023 MSA: Nvidia is 'obligated to purchase the residual unsold capacity' through 2032-04-13, i.e. a demand backstop for CoreWeave's Nvidia-GPU fleet. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-09-09 closed / funded | CoreWeave 8-K · second source #df704d |
| Nvidia → Intel | $5B Common stock at $23.28/share (~4% of Intel); FTC cleared 2025-12-18, closed 2025-12-26; paired with joint NVLink-based x86/RTX product development. | Equity investment | 2025-09-18 closed / funded | NVIDIA newsroom · second source #9dc70e |
| Nvidia → Nebius | $2B Strategic investment toward more than 5 GW of Nebius capacity by 2030. On 2026-07-21 Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake (shares plus a warrant from the deal). | Equity investment | 2026-03-11 closed / funded | NVIDIA newsroom · second source #4e4978 |
| Nvidia → CoreWeave | $2B Class A shares at $87.20; tied to a plan to add >5 GW of capacity by 2030 and early access to new Nvidia products. | Equity investment | 2026-01-26 closed / funded | CoreWeave IR · second source #0f8258 |
| Nvidia → xAI | $2B Strategic investor in the $20B Series E closed 2026-01-06 (Nvidia and Cisco named by xAI); 'as much as $2B' per CNBC; valuation about $230B, reported. | Equity investment | 2026-01-06 closed / funded | CNBC · second source single-source figure #d59e72 |
| Nvidia → Lambda | $1.5B Reported (The Information): Nvidia leases back ~18,000 of its own GPUs from Lambda over four years ($1.3B + $0.2B contracts), making Nvidia Lambda's largest customer; Nvidia is also a Lambda investor. | Compute / cloud contract | 2025-09-08 reported, not confirmed by the parties | DCD, citing The Information single-source figure #e029f9 |
| Nvidia → CoreWeave | $0.25B $250M anchor order in the IPO at $40/share (IPO raised $1.5B, priced below range). Nvidia was already an early investor (2023) and held ~$900M of CoreWeave stock as of 2025-03-31 (13F). | Equity investment | 2025-03-28 closed / funded | CNBC · second source #4f6651 |
| Meta → Nvidia | undisclosed Multiyear, multigenerational agreement to deploy 'millions' of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, Grace CPUs and Spectrum-X networking; financial value not disclosed. | Chip supply deal | 2026-02-17 announced | NVIDIA newsroom · second source #4f3e66 |
| Anthropic → Nvidia | undisclosed 'Initially up to one gigawatt of compute capacity with NVIDIA Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems.' No dollar figure. | Chip supply deal | 2025-11-18 announced | Anthropic #c04541 |
| Nvidia → Crusoe | undisclosed Nvidia participated in Crusoe's $600M Series D (Dec 2024) and $1.375B Series E (Oct 2025, >$10B valuation); Nvidia's cheque size undisclosed. Date approximate (October 2025). | Equity investment | 2025-10-01 closed / funded | Crusoe newsroom #b492ef |
| OpenAI → Nvidia | undisclosed At least 10 GW of Nvidia systems; first GW on Vera Rubin targeted 2H 2026. Dollar value undisclosed; LOI-level commitment, equity leg dropped. | Chip supply deal | 2025-09-22 announced | NVIDIA newsroom single-source figure #e196b0 |
| Nvidia → Mistral | undisclosed Existing investor that 'committed more cash' in the Series C; amount undisclosed. Mistral also buys Nvidia systems (Mistral Compute, 2025). | Equity investment | 2025-09-09 closed / funded | Mistral AI #f8c05c |
| Nvidia → US government | undisclosed 15% of H20 China sales as a condition of export licences (August 2025); H200 later allowed with a 25% cut (December 2025). Realised payments not disclosed. | Revenue share | 2025-08-11 announced | CBS News (Reuters/FT-reported, confirmed by Trump) · second source single-source figure #4cbbb3 |
Deal Watch — reported in the last 45 days (automatic, unverified)
Headlines from the feed go through a model that extracts who-pays-whom; a report appears here only when two different publishers agree on the parties and the amounts agree within 25%. Every publisher name links to the headline. Nothing in this box is in the verified graph above until a data review confirms it against a primary source.
No two-source reports in the window — the extractor needs an AI provider key.
The bubble reads
- AI's $600B Question — Sequoia Capital (David Cahn), 2024-06-20. Annualised AI infrastructure spend implies about $600B of yearly AI revenue is needed to earn a return; most of it is missing.
- The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025 — MIT NANDA, 2025-07. Despite $30-40B of enterprise GenAI spend, about 95% of pilots show no measurable P&L impact.
- Bridging a $1.5tr Data Center Financing Gap — Morgan Stanley Research, 2025-08. About $2.9T of global data-center capex through 2028, only about half fundable from hyperscaler cash flow; the rest must come from bonds, private credit and securitisation.
- $2 trillion in new revenue needed to fund AI's scaling trend — Bain & Company, 6th Global Technology Report, 2025-09-23. Meeting projected 2030 compute demand needs about $2T of annual AI revenue; the industry is about $800B short.
- IMF and Bank of England join growing chorus warning of an AI bubble — IMF Global Financial Stability Report / Bank of England FPC, via CNBC, 2025-10-09. Both flagged AI-concentrated equity valuations comparable to the 2000 dot-com peak and the risk of an abrupt correction.
- World Outlook: '1999 meets 1990' — Deutsche Bank Research (Jim Reid), via Investing.com, 2026-06-06. Frames 2026 as 1999-style tech enthusiasm colliding with a 1990-style oil shock, with an AI investment boom propping up US growth.
Method: a deal is listed only when it traces to a press release, an SEC filing, or top-tier reporting, with its date and status. Amounts are as announced or credibly reported; status says whether a deal closed, is staged, or was only reported. Not investment advice.