The bubble, month by month

217 dated events from the site's three verified tables — the deal graph, the prediction ledger and the incident register — merged and sorted. Nothing here is added by hand; every line links to where it came from.

September 2026 1

• incident 2026-09-03 · OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI: ChatGPT, Claude and Grok went down within the same hour, each for its own reason (ai service outage) · source ↗

August 2026 4

• incident 2026-08-28 · Anthropic: Claude wiped a developer's 700 GB home directory while testing a script meant to prevent exactly that (agent destructive) · source ↗
• deal 2026-08-17 · NVIDIA → OpenAI: debt, $105B · source ↗
• incident 2026-08-17 · Snowflake: Copilot-co-authored fix in Snowflake connector repo introduced CI script injection (ai code bug) · source ↗
• deal 2026-08-11 · Bond, loan & private-credit markets → CoreWeave: debt, $10B · source ↗

July 2026 3

• incident 2026-07-30 · Anthropic: Claude compromised real organizations during cyber evals that were meant to be offline (ai security) · source ↗
• incident 2026-07-16 · OpenAI (agents) / Hugging Face (victim): OpenAI evaluation agents coordinated to breach Hugging Face infrastructure (ai security) · source ↗
• deal 2026-07-02 · OpenAI → US federal government: government stake, $42.6B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗

June 2026 1

• incident 2026-06-01 · Meta (Instagram): Meta's AI account-recovery chatbot let attackers hijack Instagram accounts (ai security) · source ↗

April 2026 10

• due 2026-04-30 · due: Tesla — Cybercab robotaxi production begins at Giga Texas in April 2026. (met) · source ↗
• deal 2026-04-27 · OpenAI → Microsoft: revenue share, $38B · source ↗
• deal 2026-04-27 · Microsoft → OpenAI: revenue share, undisclosed (cancelled since) · source ↗
• incident 2026-04-25 · Anthropic: Claude Code billed 'extra usage' when commit messages contained HERMES.md (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗
• deal 2026-04-24 · Alphabet (Google) → Anthropic: equity investment, $40B · source ↗
• incident 2026-04-23 · Anthropic: Anthropic postmortem: three shipped changes degraded Claude Code for weeks (ai service outage) · source ↗
• deal 2026-04-20 · Amazon → Anthropic: equity investment, $25B · source ↗
• deal 2026-04-20 · Anthropic → Amazon: compute contract, $100B · source ↗
• deal 2026-04-09 · Meta Platforms → CoreWeave: compute contract, $21B · source ↗
• deal 2026-04-06 · Anthropic → Alphabet (Google): compute contract, undisclosed · source ↗

March 2026 3

• incident 2026-03-31 · Anthropic: Claude Code source leaked via a source-map file shipped in the npm package (ai security) · source ↗
• deal 2026-03-16 · Meta Platforms → Nebius Group: compute contract, $27B · source ↗
• deal 2026-03-11 · NVIDIA → Nebius Group: equity investment, $2B · source ↗

February 2026 12

• deal 2026-02-27 · NVIDIA → OpenAI: equity investment, $30B · source ↗
• deal 2026-02-27 · OpenAI → Amazon: compute contract, $100B · source ↗
• deal 2026-02-27 · Amazon → OpenAI: equity investment, $50B · source ↗
• deal 2026-02-27 · SoftBank Group → OpenAI: equity investment, $30B · source ↗
• incident 2026-02-27 · Unnamed exam and grade-viewing platform (built on Lovable): Lovable-built exam platform exposed 18,697 records through inverted auth checks (ai code bug) · source ↗
• deal 2026-02-24 · Meta Platforms → AMD: chip supply, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2026-02-24 · AMD → Meta Platforms: equity investment, undisclosed · source ↗
• incident 2026-02-20 · Amazon Web Services: AWS Cost Explorer outage tied to Kiro session; Amazon blames misconfigured role (agent destructive) · source ↗
• incident 2026-02-18 · Microsoft: Microsoft 365 Copilot summarized confidential-labelled emails despite DLP policies (ai security) · source ↗
• deal 2026-02-17 · Meta Platforms → NVIDIA: chip supply, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2026-02-02 · SpaceX → xAI: acquisition, $250B · source ↗
• deal 2026-02-01 · Bond, loan & private-credit markets → Oracle: debt, $50B · source ↗

January 2026 7

• incident 2026-01-31 · Moltbook: Vibe-coded agent social network Moltbook exposed 1.5M agent API tokens (ai code bug) · source ↗
• deal 2026-01-28 · Tesla → xAI: equity investment, $2B · source ↗
• deal 2026-01-26 · NVIDIA → CoreWeave: equity investment, $2B · source ↗
• promise 2026-01-22 · Demis Hassabis, CEO (Google DeepMind): AGI arrives between 2031 and 2036, not in the next two years. (pending) · source ↗
• deal 2026-01-14 · OpenAI → Cerebras Systems: compute contract, $10B · source ↗
• deal 2026-01-06 · NVIDIA → xAI: equity investment, $2B · source ↗
• deal 2026-01-06 · Bond, loan & private-credit markets → xAI: debt, $12.5B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗

December 2025 13

• due 2025-12-31 · due: OpenAI — AI agents will join the workforce and materially change company output during 2025. (disputed) · source ↗
• due 2025-12-31 · due: OpenAI — GPT-5, unifying OpenAI's model lines, ships within months of February 2025. (met) · source ↗
• due 2025-12-31 · due: OpenAI — OpenAI exceeds a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate by end of 2025 (and reaches hundreds of billions by 2030). (met) · source ↗
• due 2025-12-31 · due: Tesla — Tesla builds several thousand Optimus humanoid robots during 2025. (unmet) · source ↗
• due 2025-12-31 · due: Cruise (General Motors) — Cruise generates $1 billion of revenue in 2025. (unmet) · source ↗
• due 2025-12-31 · due: Meta — An AI agent with the abilities of a good mid-level engineer becomes buildable in 2025. (unmet) · source ↗
• due 2025-12-31 · due: Meta — Meta AI reaches more than 1 billion people during 2025. (met) · source ↗
• due 2025-12-31 · due: Meta — Meta spends $60-65 billion on capex in 2025. (met) · source ↗
• due 2025-12-31 · due: CoreWeave — CoreWeave's 2025 revenue lands between $5.15 and $5.35 billion. (walked back) · source ↗
• due 2025-12-31 · due: Independent (Marcus on AI) — No model delivering a consensus quantum leap over GPT-4 appears in 2025. (disputed) · source ↗
• deal 2025-12-24 · NVIDIA → Groq: acquisition, $20B · source ↗
• deal 2025-12-11 · Anthropic → Broadcom: chip supply, $21B · source ↗
• incident 2025-12-01 · Google: Google Antigravity agent in Turbo mode wiped a user's entire D: drive (agent destructive) · source ↗

November 2025 15

• promise 2025-11-25 · Ilya Sutskever, co-founder and CEO of Safe Superintelligence; OpenAI co-founder (Safe Superintelligence): A system that learns as well as a human and becomes superhuman arrives in 5 to 20 years, i.e. between 2030 and 2045. (pending) · source ↗
• promise 2025-11-19 · Colette Kress, CFO (restating Jensen Huang's Oct 28, 2025 GTC figure) (Nvidia): Nvidia books about $500 billion of Blackwell and Rubin revenue between January 2025 and December 2026. (pending) · source ↗
• promise 2025-11-19 · Jensen Huang, CEO (Nvidia): AI demand is not a bubble; it reflects durable, multi-phase demand for accelerated computing. (pending) · source ↗
• deal 2025-11-18 · Microsoft → Anthropic: equity investment, $5B · source ↗
• deal 2025-11-18 · NVIDIA → Anthropic: equity investment, $10B · source ↗
• deal 2025-11-18 · Anthropic → Microsoft: compute contract, $30B · source ↗
• deal 2025-11-18 · Anthropic → NVIDIA: chip supply, undisclosed · source ↗
• incident 2025-11-18 · Cloudflare: Cloudflare outage: Bot Management ML feature file doubled in size and crashed proxies (ai service outage) · source ↗
• promise 2025-11-10 · Michael Burry, founder (Scion Asset Management): Big-tech AI earnings are overstated by roughly $176 billion of under-recognized depreciation over 2026-2028. (pending) · source ↗
• promise 2025-11-06 · Sam Altman, CEO (OpenAI): OpenAI exceeds a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate by end of 2025 (and reaches hundreds of billions by 2030). (met) · source ↗
• promise 2025-11-06 · Elon Musk, CEO (Tesla): Cybercab robotaxi production begins at Giga Texas in April 2026. (met) · source ↗
• deal 2025-11-05 · Apple → Alphabet (Google): compute contract, $1B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• deal 2025-11-03 · OpenAI → Amazon: compute contract, $38B · source ↗
• deal 2025-11-03 · Microsoft → Lambda: compute contract, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2025-11-03 · Microsoft → IREN: compute contract, $9.7B · source ↗

October 2025 16

• promise 2025-10-29 · Jerome Powell, Chair (US Federal Reserve): The AI investment boom differs from the dot-com bubble because today's highly valued companies have earnings and business models. (pending) · source ↗
• deal 2025-10-28 · OpenAI → Microsoft: compute contract, $250B · source ↗
• promise 2025-10-28 · Sam Altman, CEO, and Jakub Pachocki, chief scientist (OpenAI): An intern-level automated AI researcher exists by September 2026; a fully autonomous AI researcher by 2028. (pending) · source ↗
• promise 2025-10-28 · Ray Dalio, founder (Bridgewater Associates): Markets are in a late-1990s-style bubble that will not burst until monetary policy tightens. (pending) · source ↗
• deal 2025-10-23 · Anthropic → Alphabet (Google): compute contract, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2025-10-21 · Blue Owl Capital (managed funds) → Meta Platforms: debt, $27B · source ↗
• promise 2025-10-17 · Andrej Karpathy, AI researcher, OpenAI co-founder and former Tesla AI director (Independent (Eureka Labs)): Reliable autonomous AI agents (continual learning, computer use, multimodality) take roughly a decade, i.e. until about 2035, not one year. (pending) · source ↗
• promise 2025-10-16 · Oracle (financial analyst meeting; co-CEO Clay Magouyrk) (Oracle): OCI revenue reaches $166 billion in the fiscal year ending May 2030, from roughly $10 billion in fiscal 2025. (pending) · source ↗
• deal 2025-10-15 · Microsoft → Nscale: compute contract, $23B · source ↗
• deal 2025-10-13 · OpenAI → Broadcom: chip supply, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2025-10-06 · OpenAI → AMD: chip supply, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2025-10-06 · AMD → OpenAI: equity investment, undisclosed · source ↗
• incident 2025-10-06 · Deloitte Australia: Deloitte refunds part of A$440k Australian government report over AI-fabricated citations (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗
• promise 2025-10-03 · David Solomon, CEO (Goldman Sachs): An equity-market drawdown occurs by October 2027, with much AI capital failing to earn returns. (pending) · source ↗
• promise 2025-10-03 · Jeff Bezos, founder and executive chair (Amazon): AI is in an industrial-style bubble in which many investments fail but society keeps the infrastructure and the benefits. (pending) · source ↗
• deal 2025-10-01 · NVIDIA → Crusoe: equity investment, undisclosed · source ↗

September 2025 13

• deal 2025-09-30 · Meta Platforms → CoreWeave: compute contract, $14.2B · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-22 · NVIDIA → OpenAI: equity investment, $100B (cancelled since) · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-22 · OpenAI → NVIDIA: chip supply, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-19 · Meta Platforms → Oracle: compute contract, $20B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-18 · NVIDIA → Intel: equity investment, $5B · source ↗
• incident 2025-09-17 · Anthropic: Anthropic postmortem: three infrastructure bugs degraded Claude responses for weeks (ai service outage) · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-10 · OpenAI → Oracle: compute contract, $300B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• due 2025-09-10 · due: Anthropic — AI writes 90% of code within three to six months (by September 2025) and essentially all code within twelve months (by March 2026). (unmet) · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-09 · NVIDIA → CoreWeave: compute contract, $6.3B · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-09 · ASML → Mistral AI: equity investment, $1.5B · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-09 · NVIDIA → Mistral AI: equity investment, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-08 · Microsoft → Nebius Group: compute contract, $17.4B · source ↗
• deal 2025-09-08 · NVIDIA → Lambda: compute contract, $1.5B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗

August 2025 9

• incident 2025-08-26 · Nx (nrwl) and downstream npm users: Nx 's1ngularity' malware used victims' Claude, Gemini and Q CLIs to hunt secrets (ai security) · source ↗
• deal 2025-08-22 · US federal government → Intel: government stake, $8.9B · source ↗
• deal 2025-08-21 · Meta Platforms → Alphabet (Google): compute contract, $10B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• incident 2025-08-20 · Perplexity: Perplexity Comet browser hijacked by hidden web text to exfiltrate email and OTP (ai security) · source ↗
• deal 2025-08-18 · SoftBank Group → Intel: equity investment, $2B · source ↗
• promise 2025-08-14 · Sam Altman, CEO (OpenAI): Investors are collectively overexcited about AI, i.e. the market is in a bubble phase, even though the technology is real. (pending) · source ↗
• promise 2025-08-12 · CoreWeave (company guidance; CEO Michael Intrator) (CoreWeave): CoreWeave's 2025 revenue lands between $5.15 and $5.35 billion. (walked back) · source ↗
• deal 2025-08-11 · NVIDIA → US federal government: revenue share, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2025-08-11 · AMD → US federal government: revenue share, undisclosed · source ↗

July 2025 10

• incident 2025-07-29 · Base44 (Wix): Base44 vibe-coding platform let anyone register into private enterprise apps (ai security) · source ↗
• due 2025-07-25 · due: Tesla — AI becomes vastly smarter than humans in less than five years, i.e. by July 2025. (unmet) · source ↗
• incident 2025-07-23 · Amazon Web Services: Amazon Q VS Code extension shipped an injected 'wipe the system' agent prompt (agent destructive) · source ↗
• incident 2025-07-21 · Google: Gemini CLI lost a user's files after a failed mkdir and blind move commands (agent destructive) · source ↗
• incident 2025-07-20 · Replit: Replit agent deleted a production database during an explicit code freeze (agent destructive) · source ↗
• due 2025-07-14 · due: Inflection AI — An AI can autonomously turn $100,000 into $1 million on a retail platform within about two years, i.e. by mid-2025. (unmet) · source ↗
• deal 2025-07-13 · SpaceX → xAI: equity investment, $2B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• incident 2025-07-09 · Paradox.ai (McHire platform used by McDonald's franchisees): McDonald's McHire hiring chatbot backend opened with 123456 and leaked applicant data (ai security) · source ↗
• deal 2025-07-07 · CoreWeave → Core Scientific: acquisition, $9B (cancelled since) · source ↗
• deal 2025-07-01 · Bond, loan & private-credit markets → xAI: debt, $5B · source ↗

June 2025 7

• due 2025-06-30 · due: Tesla — A paid, unsupervised robotaxi service launches in Austin in June 2025. (disputed) · source ↗
• due 2025-06-30 · due: Microsoft — Microsoft spends about $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers in fiscal 2025 (July 2024-June 2025). (met) · source ↗
• promise 2025-06-17 · Andy Jassy, CEO (Amazon): Amazon's total corporate headcount falls within a few years because of AI-driven efficiency. (met) · source ↗
• deal 2025-06-12 · Meta Platforms → Scale AI: equity investment, $14.3B · source ↗
• incident 2025-06-11 · Microsoft: EchoLeak: zero-click prompt injection exfiltrated data from Microsoft 365 Copilot (ai security) · source ↗
• due 2025-06-10 · due: Apple — The more personal Siri (personal context, onscreen awareness, in-app actions) ships by mid-2025. (unmet) · source ↗
• promise 2025-06-10 · Sam Altman, CEO (OpenAI): AI systems that can produce novel insights arrive in 2026; robots doing real-world tasks arrive in 2027. (pending) · source ↗

May 2025 7

• promise 2025-05-28 · Dario Amodei, CEO (Anthropic): Half of entry-level white-collar jobs disappear and unemployment reaches 10-20% by mid-2030. (pending) · source ↗
• deal 2025-05-23 · Oracle → NVIDIA: chip supply, $40B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• deal 2025-05-21 · Oracle → Crusoe: compute contract, undisclosed · source ↗
• deal 2025-05-21 · Blue Owl Capital (managed funds) → Crusoe: debt, $15B · source ↗
• deal 2025-05-21 · OpenAI → io Products (Jony Ive): acquisition, $6.5B · source ↗
• incident 2025-05-18 · Chicago Sun-Times (content syndicated by King Features / Hearst): Chicago Sun-Times printed an AI-generated reading list with 10 nonexistent books (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗
• incident 2025-05-15 · Anthropic (via outside counsel): Anthropic's own court filing carried a citation Claude hallucinated (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗

April 2025 3

• incident 2025-04-28 · OpenAI: OpenAI rolled back a GPT-4o update that made ChatGPT dangerously sycophantic (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗
• incident 2025-04-14 · Anysphere (Cursor): Cursor's AI support bot invented a one-device policy and triggered cancellations (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗
• promise 2025-04-01 · Dario Amodei, CEO (Anthropic): AI systems collectively equivalent to a country of geniuses exist by 2027. (pending) · source ↗

March 2025 6

• deal 2025-03-31 · SoftBank Group → OpenAI: equity investment, $30B · source ↗
• deal 2025-03-28 · NVIDIA → CoreWeave: equity investment, $0.25B · source ↗
• deal 2025-03-20 · SoftBank Group → Ampere Computing: acquisition, $6.5B · source ↗
• deal 2025-03-10 · OpenAI → CoreWeave: compute contract, $22.4B · source ↗
• promise 2025-03-10 · Dario Amodei, CEO (Anthropic): AI writes 90% of code within three to six months (by September 2025) and essentially all code within twelve months (by March 2026). (unmet) · source ↗
• deal 2025-03-03 · Microsoft → CoreWeave: compute contract, $10B · source ↗

February 2025 3

• promise 2025-02-12 · Sam Altman, CEO (OpenAI): GPT-5, unifying OpenAI's model lines, ships within months of February 2025. (met) · source ↗
• due 2025-02-10 · due: Frontier AI Safety Commitments, AI Seoul Summit — Every signatory publishes a frontier safety framework before the Paris AI Action Summit of February 10-11, 2025. (disputed) · source ↗
• deal 2025-02-03 · SoftBank Group → OpenAI: compute contract, $3B · source ↗

January 2025 15

• incident 2025-01-29 · DeepSeek: DeepSeek left a ClickHouse database with plaintext chat logs open to the internet (ai security) · source ↗
• promise 2025-01-29 · Elon Musk, CEO (Tesla): A paid, unsupervised robotaxi service launches in Austin in June 2025. (disputed) · source ↗
• promise 2025-01-29 · Elon Musk, CEO (Tesla): Tesla builds several thousand Optimus humanoid robots during 2025. (unmet) · source ↗
• promise 2025-01-29 · Mark Zuckerberg, CEO (Meta): An AI agent with the abilities of a good mid-level engineer becomes buildable in 2025. (unmet) · source ↗
• promise 2025-01-29 · Mark Zuckerberg, CEO (Meta): Meta AI reaches more than 1 billion people during 2025. (met) · source ↗
• promise 2025-01-24 · Mark Zuckerberg, CEO (Meta): Meta spends $60-65 billion on capex in 2025. (met) · source ↗
• deal 2025-01-21 · SoftBank Group → Stargate JV (OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, MGX): equity investment, $19B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• deal 2025-01-21 · OpenAI → Stargate JV (OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, MGX): equity investment, $19B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• deal 2025-01-21 · Oracle → Stargate JV (OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, MGX): equity investment, $7B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• deal 2025-01-21 · MGX (Abu Dhabi) → Stargate JV (OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, MGX): equity investment, $7B (reported, not confirmed) · source ↗
• promise 2025-01-21 · OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle and MGX (joint announcement; Sam Altman, Masayoshi Son, Larry Ellison) (Stargate Project): $100 billion of AI data-center investment deploys immediately and $500 billion within four years (by January 2029). (disputed) · source ↗
• incident 2025-01-16 · Apple: Apple suspended Apple Intelligence news notification summaries after false headlines (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗
• promise 2025-01-06 · Sam Altman, CEO (OpenAI): AI agents will join the workforce and materially change company output during 2025. (disputed) · source ↗
• promise 2025-01-03 · Brad Smith, vice chair and president (Microsoft): Microsoft spends about $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers in fiscal 2025 (July 2024-June 2025). (met) · source ↗
• promise 2025-01-01 · Gary Marcus, cognitive scientist, NYU professor emeritus, author (Independent (Marcus on AI)): No model delivering a consensus quantum leap over GPT-4 appears in 2025. (disputed) · source ↗

December 2024 2

• due 2024-12-31 · due: Klarna — Klarna's AI assistant replaces the work of 700 agents and drives a $40 million profit improvement in 2024. (walked back) · source ↗
• incident 2024-12-11 · OpenAI: OpenAI outage: new telemetry service overwhelmed Kubernetes control planes (ai service outage) · source ↗

November 2024 1

• deal 2024-11-15 · US federal government → TSMC: government stake, $6.6B · source ↗

October 2024 1

• promise 2024-10-11 · Dario Amodei, CEO (Anthropic): 'Powerful AI' (smarter than a Nobel laureate across fields, able to act autonomously for days) could arrive as early as 2026. (pending) · source ↗

September 2024 1

• promise 2024-09-23 · Sam Altman, CEO (OpenAI): Superintelligence may arrive within a few thousand days (roughly the early-to-mid 2030s). (pending) · source ↗

August 2024 1

• incident 2024-08-20 · Slack (Salesforce): Slack AI could be tricked by a public-channel post into leaking private-channel secrets (ai security) · source ↗

June 2024 3

• promise 2024-06-20 · David Cahn, partner (Sequoia Capital): AI revenue must eventually fill a roughly $600 billion gap to justify GPU capex; otherwise investors, not builders, bear the losses. (pending) · source ↗
• incident 2024-06-17 · McDonald's: McDonald's ended IBM's AI drive-thru ordering test after viral order errors (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗
• promise 2024-06-10 · Apple (official newsroom announcement, WWDC) (Apple): The more personal Siri (personal context, onscreen awareness, in-app actions) ships by mid-2025. (unmet) · source ↗

May 2024 3

• incident 2024-05-30 · Google: Google AI Overviews told users to put glue on pizza and eat rocks (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗
• promise 2024-05-21 · 16 signatory companies (Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, xAI and others) (Frontier AI Safety Commitments, AI Seoul Summit): Every signatory publishes a frontier safety framework before the Paris AI Action Summit of February 10-11, 2025. (disputed) · source ↗
• promise 2024-05-01 · Daron Acemoglu, Institute Professor of economics (MIT): AI adds less than 1% to US total factor productivity over the decade to 2034 (a skeptic's counter-forecast to transformative-growth claims). (pending) · source ↗

March 2024 1

• incident 2024-03-29 · New York City (Office of Technology and Innovation): NYC's MyCity chatbot told businesses to break the law; shut down in 2026 (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗

February 2024 3

• promise 2024-02-27 · Klarna (official press release; CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski) (Klarna): Klarna's AI assistant replaces the work of 700 agents and drives a $40 million profit improvement in 2024. (walked back) · source ↗
• incident 2024-02-22 · Google: Google paused Gemini image generation of people after inaccurate historical images (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗
• incident 2024-02-14 · Air Canada: Air Canada held liable for a refund policy its website chatbot invented (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗

January 2024 1

• incident 2024-01-18 · DPD UK: DPD disabled its chatbot's AI after an update made it swear and mock the company (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗

December 2023 1

• incident 2023-12-17 · Chevrolet of Watsonville (chatbot vendor Fullpath): Chevrolet dealer's ChatGPT bot agreed to sell a Tahoe for $1 as a 'binding offer' (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗

October 2023 2

• deal 2023-10-27 · Alphabet (Google) → Anthropic: equity investment, $3B · source ↗
• promise 2023-10-26 · Shane Legg, co-founder and chief AGI scientist (Google DeepMind): Even odds of AGI by the end of 2028. (pending) · source ↗

September 2023 1

• deal 2023-09-25 · Amazon → Anthropic: equity investment, $8B · source ↗

July 2023 2

• promise 2023-07-14 · Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder and CEO of Inflection AI (now CEO, Microsoft AI) (Inflection AI): An AI can autonomously turn $100,000 into $1 million on a retail platform within about two years, i.e. by mid-2025. (unmet) · source ↗
• promise 2023-07-05 · OpenAI (official blog; team led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike) (OpenAI): OpenAI will solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by mid-2027, dedicating 20% of secured compute to the effort. (walked back) · source ↗

June 2023 1

• incident 2023-06-22 · Levidow, Levidow & Oberman (plaintiff's counsel): Mata v. Avianca: lawyers sanctioned for filing ChatGPT-fabricated case citations (ai wrong in prod) · source ↗

March 2023 1

• incident 2023-03-20 · OpenAI: ChatGPT bug in Redis client exposed other users' chat titles and payment details (ai security) · source ↗

January 2023 1

• deal 2023-01-23 · Microsoft → OpenAI: equity investment, $13B · source ↗

September 2022 1

• promise 2022-09-12 · Kyle Vogt, CEO (Cruise (General Motors)): Cruise generates $1 billion of revenue in 2025. (unmet) · source ↗

December 2021 2

• due 2021-12-31 · due: Tesla — Tesla vehicles achieve full (Level 5) self-driving more reliable than a human during 2021. (unmet) · source ↗
• due 2021-12-31 · due: Ford — A driverless Ford ride-hailing vehicle is in commercial operation in 2021. (unmet) · source ↗

September 2021 1

• due 2021-09-18 · due: Lyft — Most Lyft rides nationwide are provided by fully autonomous vehicles by September 2021. (unmet) · source ↗

January 2021 1

• promise 2021-01-27 · Elon Musk, CEO (Tesla): Tesla vehicles achieve full (Level 5) self-driving more reliable than a human during 2021. (unmet) · source ↗

December 2020 1

• due 2020-12-31 · due: Tesla — Tesla operates autonomous robotaxis, over a million of them, on public roads by the end of 2020. (unmet) · source ↗

July 2020 1

• promise 2020-07-25 · Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX (Tesla): AI becomes vastly smarter than humans in less than five years, i.e. by July 2025. (unmet) · source ↗

April 2019 1

• promise 2019-04-22 · Elon Musk, CEO (Tesla): Tesla operates autonomous robotaxis, over a million of them, on public roads by the end of 2020. (unmet) · source ↗

January 2019 1

• promise 2019-01-13 · Kai-Fu Lee, CEO of Sinovation Ventures, former president of Google China (Sinovation Ventures): Roughly 40% of the world's jobs are displaceable by AI within 15 to 25 years, i.e. by 2034-2044. (pending) · source ↗

December 2017 1

• due 2017-12-31 · due: Tesla — A Tesla drives itself coast to coast with no human input by the end of 2017. (unmet) · source ↗

September 2017 1

• due 2017-09-25 · due: Google — Self-driving cars are available to ordinary people within five years, i.e. by 2017. (unmet) · source ↗

October 2016 1

• promise 2016-10-19 · Elon Musk, CEO (Tesla): A Tesla drives itself coast to coast with no human input by the end of 2017. (unmet) · source ↗

September 2016 1

• promise 2016-09-18 · John Zimmer, co-founder and president (Lyft): Most Lyft rides nationwide are provided by fully autonomous vehicles by September 2021. (unmet) · source ↗

August 2016 1

• promise 2016-08-16 · Ford Motor Company (CEO Mark Fields) (Ford): A driverless Ford ride-hailing vehicle is in commercial operation in 2021. (unmet) · source ↗

September 2012 1

• promise 2012-09-25 · Sergey Brin, co-founder (Google): Self-driving cars are available to ordinary people within five years, i.e. by 2017. (unmet) · source ↗

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