BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//Natural Stupidity Studio//The Prediction Ledger//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH X-WR-CALNAME:AI promises coming due X-WR-CALDESC:Dated public promises by AI companies and executives\, each wi th a source. https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger BEGIN:VEVENT UID:altman-agents-join-workforce-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:OpenAI: AI agents will join the workforce and materially change com pany output during 2025. DESCRIPTION:Sam Altman\, CEO\, 2025-01-06: We believe that\, in 2025\, we m ay see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies. — status: disputed. Source: https://blog.samaltman.co m/reflections. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:altman-novel-insights-2026-robots-2027@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 SUMMARY:OpenAI: AI systems that can produce novel insights arrive in 2026\; robots doing real-world tasks arrive in 2027. DESCRIPTION:Sam Altman\, CEO\, 2025-06-10: 2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival o f robots that can do tasks in the real world. — status: pending. Source: h ttps://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity. The ledger: https://natu ralstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:openai-superalignment-four-years@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20270705 SUMMARY:OpenAI: OpenAI will solve the core technical challenges of superint elligence alignment by mid-2027\, dedicating 20% of secured compute to the effort. DESCRIPTION:OpenAI (official blog\; team led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leik e)\, 2023-07-05: OpenAI set itself the goal of solving the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment within four years\, dedicating 2 0% of its secured compute to a new Superalignment team. (paraphrase) — sta tus: walked back. Source: https://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignm ent/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignment/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:openai-gpt5-roadmap-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:OpenAI: GPT-5\, unifying OpenAI's model lines\, ships within months of February 2025. DESCRIPTION:Sam Altman\, CEO\, 2025-02-12: Altman said OpenAI would ship GP T-4.5 within weeks as its last non-chain-of-thought model\, then release G PT-5 within months as a system unifying its o-series and GPT-series models . (paraphrase) — status: met. Source: https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/12/op enai-cancels-its-o3-ai-model-in-favor-of-a-unified-next-gen-release/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/12/openai-cancels-its-o3-ai-model-in-fav or-of-a-unified-next-gen-release/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:openai-ai-research-intern-sept-2026@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260930 SUMMARY:OpenAI: An intern-level automated AI researcher exists by September 2026\; a fully autonomous AI researcher by 2028. DESCRIPTION:Sam Altman\, CEO\, and Jakub Pachocki\, chief scientist\, 2025- 10-28: OpenAI said it was tracking toward an intern-level automated AI res earch assistant by September 2026 and a fully automated 'legitimate AI res earcher' by 2028. (paraphrase) — status: pending. Source: https://techcrun ch.com/2025/10/28/sam-altman-says-openai-will-have-a-legitimate-ai-researc her-by-2028/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/28/sam-altman-says-openai-will-have-a-le gitimate-ai-researcher-by-2028/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:openai-20b-run-rate-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:OpenAI: OpenAI exceeds a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate by end of 2025 (and reaches hundreds of billions by 2030). DESCRIPTION:Sam Altman\, CEO\, 2025-11-06: Altman said OpenAI expected to e nd 2025 above a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate and to grow to hun dreds of billions of dollars in revenue by 2030. (paraphrase) — status: me t. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/sam-altman-says-openai-will-top -20-billion-annual-revenue-this-year.html. The ledger: https://naturalstup idity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/sam-altman-says-openai-will-top-20-bill ion-annual-revenue-this-year.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:stargate-500b-100b-immediately@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290121 SUMMARY:Stargate Project: $100 billion of AI data-center investment deploys immediately and $500 billion within four years (by January 2029). DESCRIPTION:OpenAI\, SoftBank\, Oracle and MGX (joint announcement\; Sam Al tman\, Masayoshi Son\, Larry Ellison)\, 2025-01-21: The Stargate Project i s a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four ye ars... We will begin deploying $100 billion immediately. — status: dispute d. Source: https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20250122. The ledger: http s://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20250122 END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:amodei-powerful-ai-as-early-as-2026@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 SUMMARY:Anthropic: 'Powerful AI' (smarter than a Nobel laureate across fiel ds\, able to act autonomously for days) could arrive as early as 2026. DESCRIPTION:Dario Amodei\, CEO\, 2024-10-11: I think it could come as early as 2026\, though there are also ways it could take much longer. — status: pending. Source: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace. The le dger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:amodei-country-of-geniuses-2026-2027@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271231 SUMMARY:Anthropic: AI systems collectively equivalent to a country of geniu ses exist by 2027. DESCRIPTION:Dario Amodei\, CEO\, 2025-04-01: we could have AI systems equiv alent to a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter' as soon as 2026 or 2027 — status: pending. Source: https://www.darioamodei.com/post/the-urgency-of- interpretability. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.darioamodei.com/post/the-urgency-of-interpretability END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:amodei-90-percent-of-code-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20250910 SUMMARY:Anthropic: AI writes 90% of code within three to six months (by Sep tember 2025) and essentially all code within twelve months (by March 2026) . DESCRIPTION:Dario Amodei\, CEO\, 2025-03-10: I think we'll be there in thre e to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code — status: unmet . Source: https://www.cfr.org/event/ceo-speaker-series-dario-amodei-anthro pic. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.cfr.org/event/ceo-speaker-series-dario-amodei-anthropic END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:amodei-entry-level-jobs-unemployment@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20300528 SUMMARY:Anthropic: Half of entry-level white-collar jobs disappear and unem ployment reaches 10-20% by mid-2030. DESCRIPTION:Dario Amodei\, CEO\, 2025-05-28: Amodei warned AI could wipe ou t half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push US unemployment to 10 -20% within one to five years. (paraphrase) — status: pending. Source: htt ps://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anth ropic END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:musk-ai-vastly-smarter-within-five-years@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20250725 SUMMARY:Tesla: AI becomes vastly smarter than humans in less than five year s\, i.e. by July 2025. DESCRIPTION:Elon Musk\, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX\, 2020-07-25: we're headed toward a situation where AI is vastly smarter than humans — status: unmet. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/29/elon-musk-deepmind-ai.html. The l edger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/29/elon-musk-deepmind-ai.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:musk-la-to-new-york-autonomous-2017@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20171231 SUMMARY:Tesla: A Tesla drives itself coast to coast with no human input by the end of 2017. DESCRIPTION:Elon Musk\, CEO\, 2016-10-19: Musk said Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from a home in Los Angeles to Times Square\, New York\, without a single touch\, by the end of 2017. (paraphrase) — status : unmet. Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-w ill-travel-l-nyc-2017-says-musk-n670206. The ledger: https://naturalstupid ity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will-travel-l-n yc-2017-says-musk-n670206 END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:musk-million-robotaxis-2020@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20201231 SUMMARY:Tesla: Tesla operates autonomous robotaxis\, over a million of them \, on public roads by the end of 2020. DESCRIPTION:Elon Musk\, CEO\, 2019-04-22: I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year — status: unmet. Source: https:// www.cnbc.com/2019/04/22/elon-musk-says-tesla-robotaxis-will-hit-the-market -next-year.html. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/22/elon-musk-says-tesla-robotaxis-will-hit -the-market-next-year.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:musk-level-5-this-year-2021@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20211231 SUMMARY:Tesla: Tesla vehicles achieve full (Level 5) self-driving more reli able than a human during 2021. DESCRIPTION:Elon Musk\, CEO\, 2021-01-27: I am highly confident the car wil l be able to drive itself with reliability in excess of a human this year. — status: unmet. Source: https://techcrunch.com/2021/05/07/tesla-refutes- elon-musks-timeline-on-full-self-driving/. The ledger: https://naturalstup idity.studio/ledger URL:https://techcrunch.com/2021/05/07/tesla-refutes-elon-musks-timeline-on- full-self-driving/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:musk-unsupervised-fsd-austin-june-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20250630 SUMMARY:Tesla: A paid\, unsupervised robotaxi service launches in Austin in June 2025. DESCRIPTION:Elon Musk\, CEO\, 2025-01-29: We're going to be launching unsup ervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June. — status: d isputed. Source: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29 /tesla-tsla-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript/. The ledger: https://natural stupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29/tesla-tsla-q4 -2024-earnings-call-transcript/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:tesla-optimus-several-thousand-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:Tesla: Tesla builds several thousand Optimus humanoid robots during 2025. DESCRIPTION:Elon Musk\, CEO\, 2025-01-29: Will we succeed in building 10\,0 00 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not\, but will we su cceed in making several thousand? Yes. — status: unmet. Source: https://ww w.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29/tesla-tsla-q4-2024-earning s-call-transcript/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29/tesla-tsla-q4 -2024-earnings-call-transcript/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:tesla-cybercab-production-april-2026@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20260430 SUMMARY:Tesla: Cybercab robotaxi production begins at Giga Texas in April 2 026. DESCRIPTION:Elon Musk\, CEO\, 2025-11-06: we'll be starting production in A pril next year — status: met. Source: https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/06/te sla-to-begin-cybercab-production-in-april-musk-claims/. The ledger: https: //naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/06/tesla-to-begin-cybercab-production-in -april-musk-claims/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:brin-self-driving-for-ordinary-people-2017@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20170925 SUMMARY:Google: Self-driving cars are available to ordinary people within f ive years\, i.e. by 2017. DESCRIPTION:Sergey Brin\, co-founder\, 2012-09-25: You can count on one han d the number of years until ordinary people can experience this. — status: unmet. Source: https://www.computerworld.com/article/1526480/self-driving -cars-a-reality-for-ordinary-people-within-5-years-says-google-s-sergey-b. html. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.computerworld.com/article/1526480/self-driving-cars-a-reali ty-for-ordinary-people-within-5-years-says-google-s-sergey-b.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:ford-level-4-ride-hailing-2021@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20211231 SUMMARY:Ford: A driverless Ford ride-hailing vehicle is in commercial opera tion in 2021. DESCRIPTION:Ford Motor Company (CEO Mark Fields)\, 2016-08-16: Ford announc ed it would have a high-volume\, fully autonomous SAE Level 4 vehicle\, wi th no steering wheel or pedals\, in commercial ride-hailing or ride-sharin g operation in 2021. (paraphrase) — status: unmet. Source: https://phys.or g/news/2016-08-ford-fully-autonomous-car.html. The ledger: https://natural stupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://phys.org/news/2016-08-ford-fully-autonomous-car.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:lyft-majority-autonomous-within-five-years@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20210918 SUMMARY:Lyft: Most Lyft rides nationwide are provided by fully autonomous v ehicles by September 2021. DESCRIPTION:John Zimmer\, co-founder and president\, 2016-09-18: within fiv e years a fully autonomous fleet of cars will provide the majority of Lyft rides across the country. — status: unmet. Source: https://medium.com/@jo hnzimmer/the-third-transportation-revolution-27860f05fa91. The ledger: htt ps://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://medium.com/@johnzimmer/the-third-transportation-revolution-2786 0f05fa91 END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:cruise-1b-revenue-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:Cruise (General Motors): Cruise generates $1 billion of revenue in 2025. DESCRIPTION:Kyle Vogt\, CEO\, 2022-09-12: Vogt said Cruise aimed to reach $ 1 billion in annual revenue by 2025. (paraphrase) — status: unmet. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/gms-self-driving-car-unit-to-offer-driver less-rides-in-phoenix-austin-this-year.html. The ledger: https://naturalst upidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/gms-self-driving-car-unit-to-offer-driv erless-rides-in-phoenix-austin-this-year.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:zuckerberg-mid-level-engineer-agent-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:Meta: An AI agent with the abilities of a good mid-level engineer b ecomes buildable in 2025. DESCRIPTION:Mark Zuckerberg\, CEO\, 2025-01-29: 2025 will be the year when it becomes possible to build an AI engineering agent that has coding and p roblem-solving abilities of around a good mid-level engineer. — status: un met. Source: https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/ META-Q4-2024-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf. The ledger: https://naturalstup idity.studio/ledger URL:https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/META-Q4-20 24-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:zuckerberg-meta-ai-one-billion-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:Meta: Meta AI reaches more than 1 billion people during 2025. DESCRIPTION:Mark Zuckerberg\, CEO\, 2025-01-29: the year when a highly inte lligent and personalized AI assistant reaches more than 1 billion people\, and I expect Meta AI to be that leading AI assistant — status: met. Sourc e: https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/META-Q4-20 24-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.stud io/ledger URL:https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/META-Q4-20 24-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:meta-capex-60-65b-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:Meta: Meta spends $60-65 billion on capex in 2025. DESCRIPTION:Mark Zuckerberg\, CEO\, 2025-01-24: Zuckerberg said Meta would invest $60-65 billion in capital expenditures in 2025\, bring about 1 GW o f compute online and end the year with more than 1.3 million GPUs. (paraph rase) — status: met. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/24/zuckerberg-se ts-metas-ai-targets-for-the-year-expects-to-spend-60-billion-on-growth.htm l. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/24/zuckerberg-sets-metas-ai-targets-for-th e-year-expects-to-spend-60-billion-on-growth.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:klarna-ai-assistant-700-agents@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20241231 SUMMARY:Klarna: Klarna's AI assistant replaces the work of 700 agents and d rives a $40 million profit improvement in 2024. DESCRIPTION:Klarna (official press release\; CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski)\, 2024-02-27: It is doing the equivalent work of 700 full-time agents — sta tus: walked back. Source: https://www.klarna.com/international/press/klarn a-ai-assistant-handles-two-thirds-of-customer-service-chats-in-its-first-m onth/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.klarna.com/international/press/klarna-ai-assistant-handles- two-thirds-of-customer-service-chats-in-its-first-month/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:suleyman-modern-turing-test-1m@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20250714 SUMMARY:Inflection AI: An AI can autonomously turn $100\,000 into $1 millio n on a retail platform within about two years\, i.e. by mid-2025. DESCRIPTION:Mustafa Suleyman\, co-founder and CEO of Inflection AI (now CEO \, Microsoft AI)\, 2023-07-14: Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100\,000 investment... could be as little as two years away. — status: unmet. Source: https://www.technologyreview.com /2023/07/14/1076296/mustafa-suleyman-my-new-turing-test-would-see-if-ai-ca n-make-1-million/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/07/14/1076296/mustafa-suleyman-my -new-turing-test-would-see-if-ai-can-make-1-million/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:apple-personal-siri-next-year@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20250610 SUMMARY:Apple: The more personal Siri (personal context\, onscreen awarenes s\, in-app actions) ships by mid-2025. DESCRIPTION:Apple (official newsroom announcement\, WWDC)\, 2024-06-10: som e features\, software platforms\, and additional languages will come over the course of the next year — status: unmet. Source: https://www.apple.com /newsroom/2024/06/introducing-apple-intelligence-for-iphone-ipad-and-mac/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/06/introducing-apple-intelligence-f or-iphone-ipad-and-mac/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:jassy-ai-reduces-corporate-workforce@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20280617 SUMMARY:Amazon: Amazon's total corporate headcount falls within a few years because of AI-driven efficiency. DESCRIPTION:Andy Jassy\, CEO\, 2025-06-17: In the next few years\, we expec t that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company. — status: met. Source : https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-ceo-andy-jassy-on-g enerative-ai. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-ceo-andy-jassy-on- generative-ai END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:kai-fu-lee-40-percent-jobs-15-years@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20440113 SUMMARY:Sinovation Ventures: Roughly 40% of the world's jobs are displaceab le by AI within 15 to 25 years\, i.e. by 2034-2044. DESCRIPTION:Kai-Fu Lee\, CEO of Sinovation Ventures\, former president of G oogle China\, 2019-01-13: Lee said that within 15 to 25 years about 40 per cent of the world's jobs would become displaceable by AI. (paraphrase) — s tatus: pending. Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-ai-facial- and-emotional-recognition-how-one-man-is-advancing-artificial-intelligence /. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-ai-facial-and-emotional-recogni tion-how-one-man-is-advancing-artificial-intelligence/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:acemoglu-ai-tfp-under-1-percent@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20340531 SUMMARY:MIT: AI adds less than 1% to US total factor productivity over the decade to 2034 (a skeptic's counter-forecast to transformative-growth clai ms). DESCRIPTION:Daron Acemoglu\, Institute Professor of economics\, 2024-05-01: no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity (TFP) over 10 years — status: pending. Source: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32487. The l edger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.nber.org/papers/w32487 END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:microsoft-80b-ai-datacenters-fy2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20250630 SUMMARY:Microsoft: Microsoft spends about $80 billion on AI-enabled data ce nters in fiscal 2025 (July 2024-June 2025). DESCRIPTION:Brad Smith\, vice chair and president\, 2025-01-03: In FY 2025\ , Microsoft is on track to invest approximately $80 billion to build out A I-enabled datacenters to train AI models and deploy AI and cloud-based app lications around the world. — status: met. Source: https://blogs.microsoft .com/on-the-issues/2025/01/03/the-golden-opportunity-for-american-ai/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2025/01/03/the-golden-opportu nity-for-american-ai/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:nvidia-500b-blackwell-rubin-through-2026@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20261231 SUMMARY:Nvidia: Nvidia books about $500 billion of Blackwell and Rubin reve nue between January 2025 and December 2026. DESCRIPTION:Colette Kress\, CFO (restating Jensen Huang's Oct 28\, 2025 GTC figure)\, 2025-11-19: we currently have visibility to a half a trillion d ollars in Blackwell and Rubin revenue from the start of this year through the end of calendar year 2026 — status: pending. Source: https://www.fool. com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/11/19/nvidia-nvda-q3-2026-earnings-call -transcript/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/11/19/nvidia-nvda-q 3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:oracle-oci-166b-fy2030@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20300531 SUMMARY:Oracle: OCI revenue reaches $166 billion in the fiscal year ending May 2030\, from roughly $10 billion in fiscal 2025. DESCRIPTION:Oracle (financial analyst meeting\; co-CEO Clay Magouyrk)\, 202 5-10-16: Oracle projected Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue of $166 bill ion in fiscal 2030\, raising a $144 billion target given a month earlier. (paraphrase) — status: pending. Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology /oracle-expects-cloud-infrastructure-revenue-be-166-bln-fy30-2025-10-16/. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.reuters.com/technology/oracle-expects-cloud-infrastructure- revenue-be-166-bln-fy30-2025-10-16/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:coreweave-2025-revenue-guidance@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:CoreWeave: CoreWeave's 2025 revenue lands between $5.15 and $5.35 b illion. DESCRIPTION:CoreWeave (company guidance\; CEO Michael Intrator)\, 2025-08-1 2: CoreWeave raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $5.15-5.35 bill ion. (paraphrase) — status: walked back. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025 /08/12/coreweave-crwv-q2-earnings-report-2025.html. The ledger: https://na turalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/12/coreweave-crwv-q2-earnings-report-2025. html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:legg-agi-50-percent-by-2028@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20281231 SUMMARY:Google DeepMind: Even odds of AGI by the end of 2028. DESCRIPTION:Shane Legg\, co-founder and chief AGI scientist\, 2023-10-26: I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028. — status: pending. S ource: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/shane-legg. The ledger: https://naturals tupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/shane-legg END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:hassabis-agi-five-to-ten-years@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20360131 SUMMARY:Google DeepMind: AGI arrives between 2031 and 2036\, not in the nex t two years. DESCRIPTION:Demis Hassabis\, CEO\, 2026-01-22: Hassabis said today's system s are nowhere near human-level AGI and that genuine AGI is probably five t o ten years away\, with roughly even odds within the decade. (paraphrase) — status: pending. Source: https://fortune.com/2026/01/23/deepmind-demis-h assabis-anthropic-dario-amodei-yann-lecun-ai-davos/. The ledger: https://n aturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://fortune.com/2026/01/23/deepmind-demis-hassabis-anthropic-dario- amodei-yann-lecun-ai-davos/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:karpathy-decade-of-agents@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20351231 SUMMARY:Independent (Eureka Labs): Reliable autonomous AI agents (continual learning\, computer use\, multimodality) take roughly a decade\, i.e. unt il about 2035\, not one year. DESCRIPTION:Andrej Karpathy\, AI researcher\, OpenAI co-founder and former Tesla AI director\, 2025-10-17: It's the decade of agents — status: pendin g. Source: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy. The ledger: https:/ /naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:sutskever-superintelligence-5-to-20-years@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20451231 SUMMARY:Safe Superintelligence: A system that learns as well as a human and becomes superhuman arrives in 5 to 20 years\, i.e. between 2030 and 2045. DESCRIPTION:Ilya Sutskever\, co-founder and CEO of Safe Superintelligence\; OpenAI co-founder\, 2025-11-25: I think like 5 to 20. — status: pending. Source: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2. The ledger: https://n aturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2 END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:marcus-no-gpt5-level-model-2025@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251231 SUMMARY:Independent (Marcus on AI): No model delivering a consensus quantum leap over GPT-4 appears in 2025. DESCRIPTION:Gary Marcus\, cognitive scientist\, NYU professor emeritus\, au thor\, 2025-01-01: There could continue to be no 'GPT-5 level' model (mean ing a huge\, across the board quantum leap forward as judged by community consensus) throughout 2025. — status: disputed. Source: https://garymarcus .substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus. The ledger: https: //naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcu s END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:solomon-drawdown-12-to-24-months@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20271003 SUMMARY:Goldman Sachs: An equity-market drawdown occurs by October 2027\, w ith much AI capital failing to earn returns. DESCRIPTION:David Solomon\, CEO\, 2025-10-03: I wouldn't be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months\, we see a drawdown with respect to equity marke ts. — status: pending. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/goldman-sac hs-ceo-david-solomon-warns-stock-market-drawdown-is-coming.html. The ledge r: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-warns-s tock-market-drawdown-is-coming.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:burry-hyperscaler-depreciation-176b@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20281231 SUMMARY:Scion Asset Management: Big-tech AI earnings are overstated by roug hly $176 billion of under-recognized depreciation over 2026-2028. DESCRIPTION:Michael Burry\, founder\, 2025-11-10: Burry estimated that by e xtending the useful lives of their servers\, the hyperscalers would unders tate depreciation by about $176 billion between 2026 and 2028\, overstatin g earnings. (paraphrase) — status: pending. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2 025/11/11/big-short-investor-michael-burry-accuses-ai-hyperscalers-of-arti ficially-boosting-earnings.html. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.stud io/ledger URL:https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/big-short-investor-michael-burry-accuse s-ai-hyperscalers-of-artificially-boosting-earnings.html END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:seoul-frontier-safety-frameworks-by-paris@naturalstupidity.studio DTSTAMP:20260831T000000Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20250210 SUMMARY:Frontier AI Safety Commitments\, AI Seoul Summit: Every signatory p ublishes a frontier safety framework before the Paris AI Action Summit of February 10-11\, 2025. DESCRIPTION:16 signatory companies (Amazon\, Anthropic\, Google\, Meta\, Mi crosoft\, OpenAI\, xAI and others)\, 2024-05-21: publish a safety framewor k focused on severe risks by the upcoming AI Summit in France — status: di sputed. Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/frontier-ai-saf ety-commitments-ai-seoul-summit-2024/frontier-ai-safety-commitments-ai-seo ul-summit-2024. The ledger: https://naturalstupidity.studio/ledger URL:https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/frontier-ai-safety-commitmen ts-ai-seoul-summit-2024/frontier-ai-safety-commitments-ai-seoul-summit-202 4 END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR